The most important analytical principle available to any investor is also the simplest: observe where serious capital actually flows, and ignore where public attention is directed. These are almost never the same place.
Financial media exists to generate engagement, which requires novelty, conflict, and urgency. The assets and strategies discussed on financial television are selected for their ability to produce clicks and views, not for their ability to produce long-term wealth. The instruments promoted most heavily — options, leveraged ETFs, meme stocks, cryptocurrency speculation — are precisely those that generate the most fees and spreads for the intermediaries who sit between the retail investor and the market.
Serious capital — sovereign wealth funds, family offices, central banks, strategic industrial investors — moves quietly. It moves through private placements, negotiated stakes, multi-year lock-up agreements, and board-level engagement. By the time these moves become public knowledge, the position is already built and the opportunity structure has already shifted.
The retail investor’s edge is not in beating institutions to the trade. It is in recognizing where institutional capital has already been committed and positioning alongside it at a scale the institutions cannot replicate. When a billionaire’s investment fund takes a 20% stake in a micro-cap company through a private placement with a two-year lock-up, that is not a stock tip. That is a structural commitment. The retail investor who understands this distinction can accumulate shares in the open market at prices the institutional investor has already validated through their own due dilig
Great post Rob! I was happy to see $OSCR on this list. I did a massive deep dive on this company and am more bullish than ever. If we see the ICHRA Permanency Act that was introduced in the House in December 2025 gain momentum and signed into law, then what Oscar Health has been building for the past decade will take off like a rocket!
It absolutely is! I strongly believe that 2026 will be their make or break year. Bertolini coming out of retirement to cut costs and improve efficiency is the perfect foundation. If the CHOICE Arrangement Act, which is currently in legislative limbo, is signed into law then the stock goes 🚀 🌕 and the old guard (UNH & friends) will lose market share. The growth of the gig economy is also a tailwind for them.
Thanks, Chen. As Howard Marks puts it: 'You can't take the same actions as everyone else and expect to outperform.' Disagreement is the fuel of alpha. If everyone agreed these were great picks, the potential upside would already be priced in. Let’s revisit this list in 12 months.
Looking for moonshots with the possibility of 10x (or 20x or more) but dont mind if there is a chance to loose? Should look for arbitration stories. Best cases have some coverage.
PAT, AMM, SVB, EML, ETM, ZEN, EQX...
Or when the turnaround happens to a long dragging mining story, a policy change... goes to government and EU CRMA backing... ESM...already on the road of 8x behind, but still a 6-8x ahead...
Or similar but on the extremes...and close to the decisive make it or break it moment NAK, ETM, GCM...
Check out our PRL deep dive we wrote a little while back! Serious upside here.
. The Five Fundamental Truths
Truth One: Follow the Money, Not the Noise
The most important analytical principle available to any investor is also the simplest: observe where serious capital actually flows, and ignore where public attention is directed. These are almost never the same place.
Financial media exists to generate engagement, which requires novelty, conflict, and urgency. The assets and strategies discussed on financial television are selected for their ability to produce clicks and views, not for their ability to produce long-term wealth. The instruments promoted most heavily — options, leveraged ETFs, meme stocks, cryptocurrency speculation — are precisely those that generate the most fees and spreads for the intermediaries who sit between the retail investor and the market.
Serious capital — sovereign wealth funds, family offices, central banks, strategic industrial investors — moves quietly. It moves through private placements, negotiated stakes, multi-year lock-up agreements, and board-level engagement. By the time these moves become public knowledge, the position is already built and the opportunity structure has already shifted.
The retail investor’s edge is not in beating institutions to the trade. It is in recognizing where institutional capital has already been committed and positioning alongside it at a scale the institutions cannot replicate. When a billionaire’s investment fund takes a 20% stake in a micro-cap company through a private placement with a two-year lock-up, that is not a stock tip. That is a structural commitment. The retail investor who understands this distinction can accumulate shares in the open market at prices the institutional investor has already validated through their own due dilig
ence.
Lots of good info packed in this post. Great graphics too. I will have to look closer at some of the recs.
Great ideas! Although personally, I would have added VCYT to the list at a market cap of $2.9B
Great post Rob! I was happy to see $OSCR on this list. I did a massive deep dive on this company and am more bullish than ever. If we see the ICHRA Permanency Act that was introduced in the House in December 2025 gain momentum and signed into law, then what Oscar Health has been building for the past decade will take off like a rocket!
Here is the deep dive if interested: https://gannoncapital.substack.com/p/luigi-mangione-allegedly-killed-the
Thanks Joe! That means a lot.
$OSCR is definitely one of the most interesting (and misunderstood) names for 2026 I think.
I’ve bookmarked your deep dive and will give it a proper read this evening. Always looking for a fresh perspective!
It absolutely is! I strongly believe that 2026 will be their make or break year. Bertolini coming out of retirement to cut costs and improve efficiency is the perfect foundation. If the CHOICE Arrangement Act, which is currently in legislative limbo, is signed into law then the stock goes 🚀 🌕 and the old guard (UNH & friends) will lose market share. The growth of the gig economy is also a tailwind for them.
Just glancing at each one (fundamental metrics), ROOT is my kind of stock! Thanks.
bad picks. need to dig deeper into the fundamentals
Thanks, Chen. As Howard Marks puts it: 'You can't take the same actions as everyone else and expect to outperform.' Disagreement is the fuel of alpha. If everyone agreed these were great picks, the potential upside would already be priced in. Let’s revisit this list in 12 months.
Looking for moonshots with the possibility of 10x (or 20x or more) but dont mind if there is a chance to loose? Should look for arbitration stories. Best cases have some coverage.
PAT, AMM, SVB, EML, ETM, ZEN, EQX...
Or when the turnaround happens to a long dragging mining story, a policy change... goes to government and EU CRMA backing... ESM...already on the road of 8x behind, but still a 6-8x ahead...
Or similar but on the extremes...and close to the decisive make it or break it moment NAK, ETM, GCM...