Portfolio Update: I Changed My Mind on Three Positions

I did some things this month. Here are my moves + full watchlists w/ fat pitches

Hey everyone,

Last month I told you about five businesses I was happy to sit on, and three I wanted to own but wouldn’t touch at the price.

Four weeks later, the portfolio looks meaningfully different.

And the honest reason is that I changed my mind about several of them.

Some of that came from the market handing me prices I didn’t expect. Some of it came from doing more work and concluding that my earlier self was simply wrong.

There’s a strain of investor ego that treats changing your mind as a weakness, as though the job were to be right on day one and never revise. I think that’s exactly backwards. The entire point of doing the work is to update when the work tells you to. Two of the names below I bought above the prices I publicly quoted you last month. One I chose over a business I’d previously called my single most interesting position.

I’ll walk you through each call. Especially the ones where I reversed.

This month I’m running seven positions, and instead of a mini-watchlist I’m handing you two full watchlists with fat pitch triggers and all.

Here’s the short version before the detail:

• A German software business I now bought above the price I quoted you four weeks ago, because re-reading how Buffett bought See’s Candy convinced me I’d been too cheap.

• A life-sciences monopoly trading at a free-cash-flow yield it rarely offers, which I bought after a fellow Substack writer talked me out of my own bias.

• A Latin American compounder I chose over the digital bank I called my most interesting position last month.

• Two serial acquirers I’m holding straight through the drawdown.

• And an aerospace business that just jumped on earnings.

The names and full reasoning are...