Deconstructing the pragmatic mechanic that crushed the S&P 500 for a decade and a half, and why calculating odds will always beat predicting the future.
It’s wild to think that a PhD in philosophy was the "unfair advantage" behind a 1-in-2.3-million-year winning streak. I don't know much about the math of Wall Street, but Miller's shift from backward-looking stats to future probabilities sounds fascinating. :)
Do you think this "pragmatist" edge still works in today’s hyper-fast market, or has AI and instant data made it impossible for a human to spot those mispriced futures anymore?
We aren't in the same field, but I'd love to support each other feel free to subscribe if you like my content too!
Definitely cut from a different cloth. Graham, Buffet, Dreman, Neff, etc. just made sense to me. Understanding fundamentals makes crashes and recessions a delight. That’s how Buffet built fortunes, through three bear markets, loading up on good companies cheap.
It’s wild to think that a PhD in philosophy was the "unfair advantage" behind a 1-in-2.3-million-year winning streak. I don't know much about the math of Wall Street, but Miller's shift from backward-looking stats to future probabilities sounds fascinating. :)
Do you think this "pragmatist" edge still works in today’s hyper-fast market, or has AI and instant data made it impossible for a human to spot those mispriced futures anymore?
We aren't in the same field, but I'd love to support each other feel free to subscribe if you like my content too!
Jorrit
I think you’re the first person I’ve seen mention Bill Miller on Substack, and honestly, I’m not surprised it’s you. Really strong post!
Thank you for the nice words, my friend. Glad you enjoyed it!
Definitely cut from a different cloth. Graham, Buffet, Dreman, Neff, etc. just made sense to me. Understanding fundamentals makes crashes and recessions a delight. That’s how Buffet built fortunes, through three bear markets, loading up on good companies cheap.